When October rolls around, I recall the old mariner’s poem that attempts to describe the hurricane season like this:
June too soon.
July stand by.
August look out you must.
September remember.
October all over.
The poem was published in “Weather Lore” by R. Inwards in 1898. That description was probably thought to be reasonably accurate over 100 years ago. A publication called “The Deadliest Atlantic Tropical Cyclones, 1492-1996″ by Ed Rappaport and Jose Fernandez-Partagas (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdeadly.shtml) states that the last line of the poem may be more ambiguous than helpful. In some Octobers, “all over” seems to describe the spatial distribution rather than a certain cessation of activity.
The graphic below shows the formation points of 277 tropical storms during the month of October from 1851 to 2007.
HURRTRAK display of Tropical Storm Formation Points in October from 1851-2007
The graphic below shows the formation points of 146 hurricanes during the month of October from 1851 to 2007.
HURRTRAK display of Hurricane Formation Points in October from 1851-2007
These two graphics make a pretty good case for the fact that the hurricane season is usually “not over” by October.
Very interesting… thanks.
Hi! I was surfing and found your blog post… nice! I love your blog.
Cheers! Sandra. R.
Great…I am going on a caribbean cruise in October. Maybe we will get lucky and have great weather???
Going to St. Thomas and St. John from 10/3/09 – 10/10/09. We will be honeymooning there. Praying real hard we do not get hit with any hurricanes. Been to the Virgin Islands years ago. So beautiful!!
Hello Max. Good story. Oct. always a concern here along the SW coast of Florida. All is quiet so far.
Great story. me and my daughter will be in St.Petes on October 9 thru the 17, so well keep and eye to the sky and hope for great weather…..Thanks
going to cuba 30th sept with husband,daughter and sister-in-law for 20th wedding anniversary should we be worried about these dates
Thank you for the information. Going to Florida in October and I was concerned. Guess I will have to take my chances and pray no hurricane comes in.
Planning a cruise to southern carribean from San Juan Puerto Oct 18, 2009 through Oct 25, 2009. May rethink it after reviewing your tropical storm / Hurricane graphics.
Thanks for the info
Moved to Weeks Bay, AL a year ago. Husband bought house I had not seen…low lying ranch with 5′ drop from back of lot; praying no hurricanes before we can SELL! Your blog helpful; selling ASAP!
Nice graphic!
For years we have relied on the quoted poem, interpreting it to mean that “At the end of October, it’s all over” (meaning that activity has ceased). Our first year in the Caribbean (1984) proved us to be a little incorrect when we met Hurricane Klaus around 9 November, but since then we have acted on the original assumption without inconvenience, here in Puerto Rico. Jorge