Miami International Airport set a record high temperature for the date both yesterday and today. Yesterday’s high of 97 degrees Fahrenheit beat the previous record for June 14th of 96 set in 1998. Today’s high of 96 degrees Fahrenheit broke the old record of 94 set in 2010, 2009 and 1998 for this date. That is interesting, but I don’t get too excited about record highs for a few days at a single location. I am paying closer attention to the sea surface temperatures over the tropics.
One necessary (but not sufficient) condition for tropical cyclone development is water temperature of at least 79 degrees Fahrenheit (26 degrees Celsius).
The figure above shows 80+ degree water in orange and red already covering most of the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and tropical Atlantic. At the present time, the upper-level conditions over much of the tropics are not conducive for tropical cyclone development (too much shear). But it is just a matter of time before we start seeing some activity.
Let’s enjoy this quite spell with no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic but also take a little time to make sure that our hurricane plans are ready to go for when the tropics do get active.