Miami Record High Temperatures

Miami International Airport set a record high temperature for the date both yesterday and today.  Yesterday’s high of 97 degrees Fahrenheit beat the previous record for June 14^th of 96 set in 1998.  Today’s high of 96 degrees Fahrenheit broke the old record of 94 set in 2010, 2009 and 1998 for this date.  That is interesting, but I don’t get too excited about record highs for a few days at a single location.  I am paying closer attention to the sea surface temperatures over the tropics.

One necessary (but not sufficient) condition for tropical cyclone development is water temperature of at least 79 degrees Fahrenheit (26 degrees Celsius).

Atlantic Basin Sea Surface Temperatures

The figure above shows 80+ degree water in orange and red already covering most of the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and tropical Atlantic.  At the present time, the upper-level conditions over much of the tropics are not conducive for tropical cyclone development (too much shear).  But it is just a matter of time before we start seeing some activity.

Let’s enjoy this quite spell with no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic but also take a little time to make sure that our hurricane plans are ready to go for when the tropics do get active.

Father’s Day Gift Ideas

As WPLG-TV’s Hurricane Specialist, I often write blogs on hurricane preparedness.  Today, the tropics are quite and I don’t see anything on the horizon that could result in a tropical storm during the next few days.  Given that Father’s Day is coming up this Sunday, I thought about some of the great gifts that my kids have given me over the years that went into my hurricane supply kit.  You might get some good gift ideas for Dad from our Hurricane Survival Guide’s Supply Kit Checklist.

Some of my favorite items include battery or solar powered lanterns, battery powered NOAA Weather Radio that also can be hand-cranked if the power remains out for extended periods and you run out of batteries, car charger for mobile phone, hand-crank flashlights (some even come with a built-in radio), carbon-monoxide detectors, and battery operated digital TV with car charger adapter.  You might even bundle some of these and other items together in an ice chest/cooler.  Dad will thank you during the next hurricane threat.

Hurricane Supply Kit Checklist for the Home

So if you need gift ideas for Dad on this Father’s Day, one suggestion is to take your hurricane supply kit checklist with you and head to a home supply store.  Local 10’s entire 2011 Hurricane Survival Guide with a Supply Kit Checklist can be found on www.Local10.com and www.JustWeather.com.

Are You Prepared for Hurricane Season?

Strong upper-level winds are expected to inhibit any significant tropical cyclone development of the disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms currently in the vicinity of the Bahamas and eastern Cuba.  It is hurricane season, however, and the tropical storms and hurricanes are sure to eventually develop in the Atlantic basin.

Preparedness is important.  If you haven’t developed your hurricane plan, this is still a good time to do so.  And if you already have a plan, this is a good time to review it.

Local 10"s Hurricane Survival Guide

One of the best ways to prepare, in my opinion, is to check out Local 10’s 2011 Hurricane Survival Guide at http://www.local10.com/hurricane2011/index.html on www.Local10.com.  It includes checklists for your Hurricane Family Plan, Hurricane Supply Kit and First Aid Kit, evacuation zone maps for Broward, Miami-Dade and Monroe Counties, Definitions, Pet Plans, links for Emergency Transportation and Shelters, and facts on Flood Safety, Generator Safety and Maintenance, as well as what to do after the storm.

Over the years, I have talked with a lot of people who have experienced hurricanes.  One thing that really stands out to me is that people who had a hurricane plan almost always do better than those who did not have a plan.

Feel the Force: Hurricanes and Other Hazards

Saturday June 11 from 11:00 am to 6:00 pm, the Miami Science Museum is sponsoring the second annual Feel the Force:  Hurricanes and Other Hazards.  This is a FREE event and would be a great place for a family to spend some time together.

Creative and challenging activities are designed to raise awareness of the many hazards South Floridians face and educate residents on how to best prepare for emergencies of all types.   Miami-Dade County Emergency Management Director Curt Sommerhoff and I will be speaking on hurricane preparedness at 11:00 am, followed by several other speakers and hands-on exhibits.  The event is sponsored by FIU’s International Research Center, Florida’s State Emergency Response Team, and Miami-Dade County Emergency Management.

A few pictures (provided from FIU’s Erik Salna) from last year’s Feel the Force event are below.  Click on thumbnails to expand images.

House built by kids (2010)

mini Wall of Wind testing for kids (2010)

 

 

 

 

Kids practiced being a TV Weathercaster in the Hurricane Broadcast Center (2010)

 

Air Cannon shoots 2x4 into hurricane shutters (2010)

June Formation Points

June Formation Points (1851-2010)

The above graphic shows the formation points of 81 tropical (and subtropical) storms that have formed in the month of June since 1851.  Preferred regions this early in the season include the western Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and just off the southeast coast of the U.S.  On average, we see a named storm form about every other year over the Atlantic Basin during the month of June.  That is true for both the reconnaissance era (starting in 1944) and the satellite era (starting in 1966).

Some of the global computer models have been indicating development of low over the western Caribbean during the next few days.  Upper-level conditions are not conducive for development at the moment but should become a little more favorable in a couple of days.  If a tropical cyclone does develop in this area, steering currents are forecast to remain weak over the next few days and little movement is expected.

 

Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks

Drs. Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray updated their Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Outlook today, and are still calling for above-average activity.

2011 Atlantic Seasonal Outlooks

Klotzbach and Gray are forecasting 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes.  These numbers are consistent with their April forecast and fall within the large ranges given in the NOAA seasonal outlook from a couple of weeks ago.

 

It is important to note that these numbers, while interesting, don’t say anything about where or when the storms or hurricanes will be.  Last year these seasonal forecasters were calling for well-above average activity and that is exactly what we got.  They should be congratulated for those forecasts.  The 19 named storms from last year tied for the third largest number of named storms on record.  And the 12 hurricanes from last year tied for the second largest number of hurricanes on record.  But not a single hurricane made landfall in the United States.

 

Hopefully, we have learned that it is not all about the numbers.  1992 was a year with only six tropical storms of which four became hurricanes.  That was a below-average year number-wise.  But South Florida will always remember that year for Hurricane Andrew.  Don’t let the seasonal outlooks have any connection to your preparedness activities.  If you are lucky enough to live in South Florida, you need to be prepared no matter what numbers are in the seasonal outlooks.  It just takes that one hurricane over your community to make for a bad year.

Get a Hurricane Plan

Today is the last day of National Hurricane Preparedness Week.  It is also the last day of Florida Hurricane Preparedness Week.  The main goal of this week has been to urge individuals to take personal responsibility for their family’s hurricane preparedness.

During this past week, the Florida Division of Emergency Management, along with Federal, local, and private-sector partners, conducted simulated emergency response efforts and helped manage its yearly hurricane exercise.  The State Emergency Response Team tested its capability to conduct operations at a secondary site in case the Tallahassee Emergency Operations Center ever becomes inoperable due to a disaster.  Exercise participants traveled to the state’s alternate emergency coordination facility at Camp Blanding, FL to manage the simulated hurricane exercise.

Florida officials are taking hurricane preparedness seriously.  But this will be in vain unless individuals prepare as well.  A lot of us will go to home improvement stores to pick up needed items for this long Memorial Day weekend.  I encourage you to also take your hurricane supply list with you and add any missing items to your supply kit.

Hurricane Preparedness Workshop in Key West

There is not much media focus on National Hurricane Preparedness Week which is currently underway.  That is understandable given all the damage and loss of life associated with the tornadoes in mid sections of the country.  But there are hurricane preparedness activities going on in some of the vulnerable areas.  I participated in one such activity yesterday in Key West.

2011 Hurricane Preparedness Workshop speakers in Key West

Most of the participants at yesterday’s Hurricane Preparedness Workshop for the Florida Keys Tourism Industry posed for a group picture at the Harvey Government Center in Key West.  From left, front row, are Bill Becker, U.S. 1 Radio; Max Mayfield, WPLG-TV; Cammy Clark, The Miami Herald; and Bryan Norcross, The Weather Channel.  In the back row are Bill Read, National Hurricane Center Director; Jon Rizzo, Key West National Weather Service; Jodi Weinhoffer, Lodging Association of the Florida Keys and Key West; and Rich Phillips, CNN.   Photo by Andy Newman/Florida Keys News Bureau.

Bill Read made a presentation on “Surge, wind and rain; why some people still don’t get it.”  The panel of media representatives discussed how media organizations outside of Monroe County cover tropical cyclone events in the Keys.  Additional speakers included Irene Toner, Monroe County Emergency Management Director, Diana Arteaga of the Florida Department of Financial Services, Cindy DeRocher of Fair Insurance Rates for Monroe, and Andy Newman, Tourist Development Council media relations director.  The conference was organized by the Lodging Association with support from the Monroe County Tourist Development Council.  

 

In my opinion, Monroe County tourism officials have been very proactive with visitors during hurricanes.  They understand that if the visitors are taken good care of during hurricane threats – even if it means evacuating them to the mainland – they will be more willing to return to the Keys another time.

What is the First Step in Your Hurricane Plan?

This is National Hurricane Preparedness Week and today’s topic is storm surge.  Historically, more people have died in a hurricane as a result of the storm surge than from any other hurricane hazard.  The first step in anyone’s hurricane plan is to find out if you live in one of the hurricane evacuation zones.  South Florida residents can find this out by downloading our Local 10 Hurricane Survival Guide at http://www.local10.com/download/2011/0324/27311836.pdf.

Last Tuesday, I participated in a Hurricane Preparedness meeting on Miami Beach along with Miami Beach Emergency Manager, George Navarro, and Miami-Dade County Emergency Management Director, Curt Sommerhoff.  The meeting had around 100 Miami Beach hotel owners and/or general managers in attendance, and had excellent presentations from the Tourism Director of the City of Miami Beach, Michael Aller, the President and CEO of the Greater Miami & The Beaches Hotel Association, Wendy Kallergis, the President & CEO of the Great Miami Convention & Visitors Bureau, Bill Talbert, Warning Coordination Meteorologist from the Miami Weather Forecast Office, Rob Molleda, the Regional Director of Communications & Marketing for the South Florida region of the American Red Cross, Cynthia Gutierrez-White, and others.

Miami Beach Hurricane Preparedness Meeting panel

Miami Beach and other South Florida coastal areas as well as the Florida Keys are extremely vulnerable to storm surge.  I left this meeting feeling that Miami Beach is setting a good example for other coastal municipalities in having a good hurricane preparedness plan.  The representatives from the various hotels on Miami Beach understand their vulnerability to storm surge and understand that they are in a hurricane evacuation zone.  Once an evacuation is called for, Michael Aller even goes to every individual hotel to make sure they heed the evacuation order.  The attendees at this meeting understand that if the visitors to Miami Beach are treated well during a hurricane threat, they are more likely to return.  Bill Talbert has a seat at the table in the Miami-Dade County Emergency Operations Center during hurricanes and works very hard to make sure beach visitors can find nearby inland hotels to evacuate to outside of the storm surge zone.

 

I applaud the officials on Miami Beach for having created a good hurricane plan.  But let’s remember that New Orleans had a plan before Hurricane Katrina.  And Galveston had a plan before Hurricane Ike.  We just need to make sure that our plans can be executed.  That is good advice for all individuals living in hurricane vulnerable areas.

The Battle Against the Hurricane is Won Outside the Hurricane Season

National Hurricane Preparedness Week poster

One of the things I was proud of while serving as Director of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) was the establishment of the National Hurricane Preparedness Week.  I’m glad to see this has been continued by the NHC.  This year, Hurricane Preparedness Week extends from today through Saturday (May 22-28).  The idea is to get people preparing for the upcoming hurricane season before a tropical cyclone threat occurs.  This year, some neat Public Service Announcements can be seen on YouTube.  A different PSA can be viewed each day at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/outreach/prepared_week.shtml.

A different topic is covered each day of the week.  Today’s topic covered some basics including the fact that the NOAA seasonal hurricane outlook, while interesting, cannot tell you where or when the hurricanes will occur.  The next three days cover storm surge, high winds, and tornadoes.  Thursday talks about the team effort involved in the hurricane program.  And the week ends with a focus on preparing a plan that is executable.

Don’t wait for the next hurricane to come knocking on your door before you start getting prepared.