Tropical versus Extratropical November 9, 2009

For several days, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has been talking about Ida becoming “extratropical.”  The definition of extratropical used by NHC is as follows:
“Extratropical:  A term used in advisories and tropical summaries that indicate that a cyclone has lost its “tropical” characteristics.  The term implies both poleward displacement of the cyclone and the conversion [...]

Was Hurricane Ida a Surprise? November 5, 2009

Some have asked if Ida becoming a hurricane this morning was a surprise.  I can’t speak for the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasters, but I suspect they would say that it takes a lot to really surprise them.  The NHC Hurricane Specialists  issue forecasts on over 25 tropical cyclones each year if you combine the Atlantic [...]

November Tropical Cyclone Activity November 3, 2009

The first five months of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season have produced well below average tropical cyclone activity.  November has had some memorable events, including last year’s Hurricane Paloma, a Category 4 hurricane that struck Cuba.  But normally, November doesn’t produce much activity.  During the satellite era starting in 1966, the Atlantic has averaged 0.6 tropical storms and 0.4 hurricanes [...]

Severe Weather Information Center (SWIC) October 29, 2009

I’m occasionally asked for a source on tropical cyclone forecasts in ocean basins other than the Atlantic.  There is a World Meteorological Organization (WMO) web site, called the Severe Weather Information Center or SWIC, that was originally intended for the media to access basic information on current tropical cyclones issued by WMO Regional Specialized Meteorological [...]

Tropical Cyclone Tracks of the North Atlantic Ocean October 23, 2009

In my opinion, one of the most useful publications on tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin is the so-called “Track Book.”   The publication has been recently updated and shows tracks of all the tropical/subtropical storms and hurricanes going back to 1851.  These tracks are shown by individual year, my month, and by 10-day intervals.
In addition, [...]

Is the Atlantic Hurricane Season Over? October 21, 2009

Several people have asked me if I think that the Atlantic hurricane season is over.   During the past ten years, we have had two seasons that ended in early October – in 2002 and in 2006.  But I assure you that no one can tell you with absolute certainty whether this season is already over [...]

Late Season Hurricanes October 16, 2009

Although there are no tropical disturbances in the Atlantic basin that show a potential for tropical cyclone development at the moment, I would like to jog our memories a little with a reminder of some recent late season hurricanes that impacted South Florida.

Late Season Hurricanes Near South Florida

In October 1999, Hurricane Irene was a Category [...]

Typical Tropical Storm Formation Points in Late October October 14, 2009

The graphic below shows the formation points of 111 tropical storms during the October 15-31 period from the National Hurricane Center’s historical database that extends from 1851 through 2008.
Note that there are not nearly as many formations over the deep tropical Atlantic as we typically see in August, September, and early October.  The most likely [...]

Designing the Next Decade of Disaster Safety October 12, 2009

Last Friday, I had the honor of speaking to a distinguished group at the Federal Alliance for Safe Homes (FLASH) 2009 Annual Meeting, Designing the Next Decade of Disaster Safety.
The picture above shows FLASH President/CEO Leslie Chapman-Henderson with the meetings’ “Inspirers” John Zarella (CNN Miami Correspondent), Bill Read (National Hurricane Center Director) and me (representing [...]

A Measure of 2009 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity October 7, 2009

There are many measures that one can use to assess how active the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season has been, such as number of named storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, landfalls, accumulated cyclone energy index, etc.  One could also make a case for using the total number of operational aircraft missions into tropical cyclones for assessing, in [...]