La Nina Strengthens, So Where Are The Atlantic Hurricanes?

On Thursday, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released a discussion saying that “La Nina conditions strengthened during September 2007.”

Usually, La Nina conditions correlate with more and stronger hurricanes in the Atlantic. NOAA had updated its Atlantic Season Outlook in August saying, “The development of key climate factors through early August increased the confidence of an above-normal season due to development of La Nina-like conditions exerting influence.”

NOAA went on to predict a total of seven to nine hurricanes of which three to five would become major hurricanes.

To date we have had a total of four hurricanes (Dean, Felix, Humberto and Lorenzo. A post-analysis on Karen may increase that total to five. We have had only two major hurricanes (Dean and Felix).

Earlier in October, Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray updated their forecast for Atlantic hurricane activity. Klotzbach and Gray said “Our October-November forecast calls for four named storms, two hurricanes, one major hurricane…. Our well above-average prediction for October-November activity is largely due to the emergence of a now moderate La Nina event during the last two months.”

So far we have had no named storms or hurricanes in the Atlantic during October and what is left of Tropical Depression 15 currently located around 900 miles east of Bermuda is weakening.

I don’t know anyone complaining about the lack of Atlantic tropical cyclone activtiy. But either we are going to have more named storms and hurricanes or these seasonal forecasts are going to bust.

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4 thoughts on “La Nina Strengthens, So Where Are The Atlantic Hurricanes?

  1. But either we are going to have more named storms and hurricanes or these seasonal forecasts are going to bust.

    One or the other, that’s for sure!

  2. Here we are…the mid-October “mini-season” for Carib/Gulf storms and all is mostly quiet.

    My wife suggested we start eating our stockpile of hurricane supplies. I think I’ll wait another few weeks before we start dishing up the ravioli….around Thanksgiving.

  3. Well Max, put it this way: a forecast is just that, a forecast. Forecasts are based off computer models. Not to say the forecasters themselves don’t try and forecast using their own knowledge rather than the knowledge of a computer model, but let’s be serious: most people rely too heavily upon model guidance. More often than not (I’d say 80% of the time), computer models are wrong in their predictions. In my opinion, it takes humans, along WITH computer models (although human knowledge should take higher priority), to accurately generate a forecast. By the way things are looking, and judging by my experience in the past (I’m a relatively new weather junkie, but I can forecast pretty good at times), I’m calling for 1-2 more storms, and 1 hurricane. That one hurricane will possibly be major.

    Don’t forget that the average is 10/6/2, and with Karen probably going to be a hurricane in post-season anlysis, that will bring it to 5, like you said. 1988 only had 5 hurricanes as well, during a La Niña year, so it’s not uncommon for hurricane seasons to do this. Numbers don’t matter, as I’m sure you know. It only takes one, and Dean and Felix were very deadly and destructive indeed.

  4. Thanks Max. I’m glad someone is talking about the lack of tropical systems, it is unusual the forecasts have not panned out.
    Now only if the worry wart energy traders would realize this maybe the price of oil would drop.. oh wait, its going to be cold this winter!

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