On Thursday, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released a discussion saying that “La Nina conditions strengthened during September 2007.”
Usually, La Nina conditions correlate with more and stronger hurricanes in the Atlantic. NOAA had updated its Atlantic Season Outlook in August saying, “The development of key climate factors through early August increased the confidence of an above-normal season due to development of La Nina-like conditions exerting influence.”
NOAA went on to predict a total of seven to nine hurricanes of which three to five would become major hurricanes.
To date we have had a total of four hurricanes (Dean, Felix, Humberto and Lorenzo. A post-analysis on Karen may increase that total to five. We have had only two major hurricanes (Dean and Felix).
Earlier in October, Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray updated their forecast for Atlantic hurricane activity. Klotzbach and Gray said “Our October-November forecast calls for four named storms, two hurricanes, one major hurricane…. Our well above-average prediction for October-November activity is largely due to the emergence of a now moderate La Nina event during the last two months.”
So far we have had no named storms or hurricanes in the Atlantic during October and what is left of Tropical Depression 15 currently located around 900 miles east of Bermuda is weakening.
I don’t know anyone complaining about the lack of Atlantic tropical cyclone activtiy. But either we are going to have more named storms and hurricanes or these seasonal forecasts are going to bust.