Is Gustav Coming to South Florida?

This blog is written primarily for the residents of South Florida in the WPLG viewing area.

Many people have already asked me if Tropical Storm Gustav is coming to South Florida.  The answer is that it is way to early to say for certain.  Anytime we have a developing tropical cyclone southeast of us, in the peak of the hurricane season, and headed in our general direction, we need to closely monitor it.  The current forecast from the National Hurricane Center as of 5:00 pm on Monday, August 25, is below.

00 pm August 25, 2008

Tropical Storm Gustav Forecast from 5:00 pm August 25, 2008

Although the center of Gustav is forecast to be over western Cuba in 5 days on the current forecast, the Cone of Uncertainty covers the Florida Keys and about half of the Florida peninsula.  The ultimate track will be determined, in part, by what happens to the mid-level high pressure system now over Florida.  A peek at the computer guidance from this evening suggests that this high is likely to remain strong enough to keep the center of Gustav mostly south of Cuba.  The official track will be shifted a little more to the south in future forecasts if this high persists.  NOAA will be flying its jet in the environment around Gustav starting Tuesday afternoon.  This data will get into the computer models initialized Tuesday evening which should improve the confidence in the future forecasts.  Until the confidence becomes higher that Gustav will remain to our south, it is obviously wise to keep an eye on it. 
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3 thoughts on “Is Gustav Coming to South Florida?

  1. Hi Max,

    I have been keeping an eye on Gustav and i just wanted to know yor feel on it today? Do you think it’s going to stay on that projected path? Is there a possibilty of it hitting south florida? i was looking at the historical and i see that alot of these Hurricanes came directly to Florida. What do you think about Gustav?

  2. I noticed that there is a disturbance forming off the Yucatan Peninsula. How will this new storm affect Gustav. Could it push Gustav more east toward Florida? Just wondering.

  3. Mr. Mayfield
    This comment has nothing to do with Gustav or any present storm. This goes back to 1995 when Hurricane Luis was bearing down on the small Caribbean island of Antigua.

    I had just gotten internet and every time I logged on to NHC I would pray that the recent report was written by Max Mayfield.

    You were a straight shooter then as you are now. Along with our meteorologist Philbert Mason and yourself, alot of lives were save due to the accurate and straight shooting advance notice delivered.
    I would like to thank you then and now. I look forward to your continued reports from channel 10.

    Thank you again.

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