Disturbance over NW Caribbean

There is currently a persistent area of low pressure over the northwest Caribbean centered near the coast of Honduras that is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Some computer models show this system developing later in the week and moving generally northeastward toward Florida.  Other models do not show any significant development.

The graphic below shows all the tracks of Tropical Storms and Hurricanes that were tracked from October 20 to October 31 passing within 150 miles of Miami.

HURRTRAK display of tropical storm and hurricane tracks from Oct 20 to Oct 31 passing within 150 miles of Miami using historical data base from 1851 to 2007

HURRTRAK display of tropical storm and hurricane tracks from Oct 20 to Oct 31 passing within 150 miles of Miami using historical data base from 1851 to 2007

There are 21 tropical storms and hurricanes to pass within 150 miles of Miami during the last third of October using the historical data base from 1851 to 2007.  Note that most of these tracks either originate over the western Caribbean or pass through that area.

Even if this disturbance doesn’t develop into a tropical cyclone, the moisture will likely be steered over Florida by the end of the week.

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