November Tropical Cyclones in the Atlantic

A lot of folks are saying the Atlantic hurricane season is over.  Let us hope that is the case.  However, the graphic below shows 60 tropical storms during the month of November from 1851 to 2007.

HURRTRAK display of Tropical Storm Formation Points in November from 1851-2007

HURRTRAK display of Tropical Storm Formation Points in November from 1851-2007

While November is certainly past the peak of the hurricane season, we can have tropical cyclones in that month.  In fact, since 1944 (the beginning of the reconnaissance aircraft era) 39% of years have had a tropical cyclone occur in November.  And 27% of those years had a tropical storm reach hurricane status in November.

Most of the global models are currently showing some development originating over the western Caribbean during next week.  There is a lot of scatter in where these long range models take the tropical cyclone.  Some show a track to the east of Florida over the Bahamas while some suggest the system will remain over the western Caribbean.  Some actually show both.  Only time will tell what, if anything, develops, but we should keep an eye on the western Caribbean just in case.

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