Hurricane Paloma Forecast

The most recent NHC forecast of Hurricane Paloma from 1 pm today is seen in the graphic below.

NHC Hurricane Paloma Forecast from 1 pm EST Nov 7

NHC Hurricane Paloma Forecast from 1 pm EST Nov 7

For fun, I thought I would look at tracks of previous November tropical storms and hurricanes within 100 miles of the current Paloma location which can be seen below.
November tracks within 100 miles of current location

November tracks within 100 miles of current location

There are 11 tropical storms and hurricanes with tracks in November passing within 100 miles of the present location.   A couple of the tracks move into the Yucatan peninsula, and a couple dissipate over the NW Caribbean.  Most of the tracks move northeast over Cuba into the North Atlantic.  However, there is one track that is very interesting. 
Hurricane Gordon track from November 1994

Hurricane Gordon track from November 1994

Hurricane Gordon of 1994 had a very erratic track as can be seen from the graphic above.
Current computer guidance indicates that Hurricane Paloma will encounter increasing shear and weaken as indicated by the NHC intensity forecast, but now it looks like there is there is an increasing probablity that Hurricane Paloma will not continue northeastward across Cuba into the Atlantic.  It may, in fact, end up being steered back toward the west.  However, if Paloma does do that it will likely be a very much weaker tropical cyclone.  I wanted to get this posted before the NHC update.  I suspect we will see a change from their previous track.  Of course, it is easy for me or anyone to blog on potential scenarios.  I will trust the official NHC forecast.
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One thought on “Hurricane Paloma Forecast

  1. Just noticed your blog and wanted to let you know that I have a great appreciation for your work. I tune in to Channel 10 for weather reports because I trust your experience during Hurricane season. Thanks!

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