NOAA’s Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project

During this week’s Senate Hearing on Weathering the Storm:  The Need for a National Hurricane Research Initiative, Dr. Richard Spinrad shared some of the goals in NOAA’s Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP).  HFIP is a 10-year plan that was started in 2008.  In my opinion, the project has very lofty goals considering it is modestly funded.

Some of the metrics of HFIP include the following:

  1. Reduce the average track error by 50 percent
  2. Reduce the average intensity error by 50 percent
  3. Extend the lead time for hurricane forecasts from five to seven days
  4. Increase the forecast accuracy of rapid intensity change events

Additional information can be found in Dr. Spinrad’s testimony.  See http://commerce.senate.gov/public/ (click on ‘Hearings’ and the ‘Weathering the Storm.’  I’ll have more to say about some of the HFIP metrics when I talk about forecasting in future blogs.

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