During this week’s Senate Hearing on Weathering the Storm: The Need for a National Hurricane Research Initiative, Dr. Richard Spinrad shared some of the goals in NOAA’s Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP). HFIP is a 10-year plan that was started in 2008. In my opinion, the project has very lofty goals considering it is modestly funded.
Some of the metrics of HFIP include the following:
- Reduce the average track error by 50 percent
- Reduce the average intensity error by 50 percent
- Extend the lead time for hurricane forecasts from five to seven days
- Increase the forecast accuracy of rapid intensity change events
Additional information can be found in Dr. Spinrad’s testimony. See http://commerce.senate.gov/public/ (click on ‘Hearings’ and the ‘Weathering the Storm.’ I’ll have more to say about some of the HFIP metrics when I talk about forecasting in future blogs.