The tropical wave that moved off Africa over the weekend is showing some potential for development. History teaches that we should start seeing some tropical cyclones develop over the deep tropical Atlantic as we head into the peak of the hurricane season which is generally from the middle of August to the middle or end of October. But this particular system is around 3000 miles away from South Florida. It will most likely be somewhere northeast of the Leeward Islands by the end of the week. That means that we have plenty of time to watch it.
It is interesting to note that some of the tracks of memorable hurricanes that struck the United States during the peak of the season began over the eastern or central Atlantic. Examples are Andrew in 1992 (one of three Category 5 hurricanes on record to strike the United States), the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 (which is the costliest U.S. hurricane on record after adjusting for inflation, population and wealth), and the Lake Okeechobee Hurricane of 1928 (which is the second deadliest U.S. hurricane).
But other memorable hurricanes that struck the U.S. during the peak of the season, like the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane in the Florida Keys (which is listed as the most intense U.S. hurricane based on minimum central pressure) and Hurricane Katrina in 2005 (one of the costliest and deadliest on record) formed much closer to the United States.
My point is that while I’m not overly concerned with the current disturbance over the far eastern Atlantic, we should start paying closer attention to all of the tropical disturbances for the next couple of months.