The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season typically goes into the middle to end of October. Most of us are wondering what October will bring, especially given the fact that September has been so unusually inactive in regard to tropical cyclone activity. No one can tell us that with absolute certainty. What we can say is that during the satellite era starting in 1966, the Atlantic has averaged 1.8 tropical storms of which 1.0 became a hurricane.
The graphic above shows the formation points of 279 tropical storms during the month of October from the National Hurricane Center’s historical data set extending from 1851 to 2008. Note that there are not as many developments over the deep tropical Atlantic as we saw in September. The October developments are somewhat more concentrated over the western Caribbean and over the Atlantic near and just east of the Bahamas.