Seasonal Hurricane Forecasters Have My Attention

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is calling for an “active to extremely active” hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin.  According to NOAA, there is a 70 percent probability of

  • 14 to 23 Names Storms
  • 8 to 14 Hurricanes
  • 3 to 7 Major Hurricanes

Those numbers are well above the long term averages of 11 Named Storms, 6 Hurricanes and 2 Major Hurricanes.

I usually don’t get very excited about the seasonal forecasts but can’t help but note that there seems to be pretty good consensus among the various seasonal forecasters this year.  It is not all about the numbers, because it only takes one hurricane over your community to make for a bad year.  However, the historical probability of a hurricane strike in the United States generally increases with increasing seasonal activity.

We obviously need to be prepared no matter what the seasonal forecasts say.  Hopefully, this year’s forecasts of an active to extremely active season will get our attention and motivate us to prepare.

Dr. Bill Gray has been making seasonal hurricane forecasts longer than anyone – for 27 years.  Dr. Phil Klotzbach joined Dr. Gray and has been the lead scientist on their team’s forecast since 2006.  Klotzbach and Gray issued their last forecast on April 7th and called for above average activity with 15 Named Storms, 8 Hurricanes and 4 Major Hurricanes.  They will be updating their forecast tomorrow and I expect them to increase their numbers.


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