Today, Drs. Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray from Colorado State University (CSU) updated their seasonal hurricane forecast for the Atlantic Basin. They are calling for a very active 2010 hurricane season. Bill Gray has been making these forecasts for 27 years, longer than anyone, and gets credit for his pioneering efforts in seasonal hurricane forecasting. Phil Klotzbach has been on the CSU forecast team for ten years and has been the lead scientist on the seasonal forecast since 2006. Klotzbach and Gray are now calling for the following:
- 18 Named Storms
- 10 Hurricanes
- 5 Major Hurricanes
Those are very high numbers compared to the long term NHC averages of 11 Names Storms, 6 Hurricane, and 2 Major Hurricanes. The graphic below compares the forecasts from Klotzbach/Gray and NOAA with the long term averages.We know very well that it is not all about the numbers. What really counts is where the tropical cyclones hit and how large and strong their impacts are when they affect people. And no one can tell us exactly where or when the tropical cyclones will strike this far in advance.
The take away message should be that if you haven’t prepared, do so now. Everyone living in hurricane vulnerable areas needs to have a plan, have their supplies, and be prepared for the next tropical cyclone no matter when it might come knocking on their door.