NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) updated it’s ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) Diagnostic Discussion today. The graphic below says a lot.
- Average SST Anomalies 13 June to 10 July 2010
Two important things stand out. One is that the sea surface temperature anomalies are positive over much of the Main Development Region between Africa and Central America. This is where many of the Atlantic tropical cyclones, once they start developing, will get their fuel.
And two, the sea surface temperatures over most of the eastern equatorial Pacific are negative, indicative of La Niña. The CPC is no longer saying that La Niña may be forming or is likely to form. Now it is saying “La Niña conditions are developing across the equatorial Pacific.” Last year’s El Niño that, in part, helped decrease Atlantic tropical cyclone activity is long gone. The Atlantic typically sees more and stronger hurricanes in the Atlantic during La Niña years.
Max Mayfield's Hurricane Blog 
Have you looked at the good correlation between hurricane development when conditions are favourable and spikes in the strength of the solar wind due to flares, CME’s and rapid proton events?
My view is that the 2011 hurricane season will be similar to last years, as solar cycle 24 continues to be weak. This despite the more favourable weak La Niña conditions which are expected.