NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) updated it’s ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) Diagnostic Discussion today. The graphic below says a lot.
Two important things stand out. One is that the sea surface temperature anomalies are positive over much of the Main Development Region between Africa and Central America. This is where many of the Atlantic tropical cyclones, once they start developing, will get their fuel.
And two, the sea surface temperatures over most of the eastern equatorial Pacific are negative, indicative of La Niña. The CPC is no longer saying that La Niña may be forming or is likely to form. Now it is saying “La Niña conditions are developing across the equatorial Pacific.” Last year’s El Niño that, in part, helped decrease Atlantic tropical cyclone activity is long gone. The Atlantic typically sees more and stronger hurricanes in the Atlantic during La Niña years.