Possible Tropical Cyclone Development near Hispaniola

Cloudiness and thunderstorms have increased over the past 24 hours in the vicinity of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico associated with a strong tropical wave.  Some of the computer models are indicating this wave might develop into a tropical cyclone, and the National Hurricane Center is currently giving it a 60% chance of becming a tropical depression or tropical storm during the next couple of days.

Computer Model Guidance initialized at 2:00 pm EDT July 20th

The above graphic shows some of the better performing computer models initialized at 2:00 pm EDT Tuesday July 20th and verifying at 2:00 am EDT Friday July 23rd.  The line colors represent the following models:  cyan = GFDI, orange = HWFI, green = AVNI, and magenta = NGPI.  Red line is the TVCN which is actually a consensus of up to seven of the better models.  A description of the various computer guidance models can be found at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutmodels.shtml.

There is agreement at this time that the disturbance will head in the general direction of the Bahamas and South Florida. 

One thing to note.  There is much better agreement on the general track of this disturbance than on the intensity.  Although some models indicate strengthening to a tropical storm, the ECMWF (one of the better performing models) does not show any significant development at this time.

Even if this disturbance does not develop, it will likely bring some heavy rains to Haiti – especially on the east side of the tropical wave axis.

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2 thoughts on “Possible Tropical Cyclone Development near Hispaniola

  1. Hola Max,need to ask you something becasue I know you know as you’re the Man…My co-work said we will not have any Hurrican this year becasue the water is too cool, is the true or not?, becasue I don’t think the water is cold at all but like I say you’re the Man and you can keep us in info about all this that we talk about at work..pls get back to me and let me know if she is right or not. Thank you so much for your time and keep up the great job you’re are doing.

    Love,
    Pilar

  2. It’s around 11:15pm here in Miami on July 22 as we all prepare,watch and wait to see what happens with this storm. As a native Floridian who’s been here before ,during, and remain here after Andrew (i was around 14yrs old at the time) left us shell shocked, I wanted to thank you for your years of service and support in the toughest of times. We have been honored to have someone of your caliber and character serving us here in south florida as our previous director in the hurricane center and it’s great to have you on WPLG as well sir. God bless you and thank you for everything Max.

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