Cloudiness and thunderstorms have increased over the past 24 hours in the vicinity of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico associated with a strong tropical wave. Some of the computer models are indicating this wave might develop into a tropical cyclone, and the National Hurricane Center is currently giving it a 60% chance of becming a tropical depression or tropical storm during the next couple of days.
The above graphic shows some of the better performing computer models initialized at 2:00 pm EDT Tuesday July 20th and verifying at 2:00 am EDT Friday July 23rd. The line colors represent the following models: cyan = GFDI, orange = HWFI, green = AVNI, and magenta = NGPI. Red line is the TVCN which is actually a consensus of up to seven of the better models. A description of the various computer guidance models can be found at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutmodels.shtml.
There is agreement at this time that the disturbance will head in the general direction of the Bahamas and South Florida.
One thing to note. There is much better agreement on the general track of this disturbance than on the intensity. Although some models indicate strengthening to a tropical storm, the ECMWF (one of the better performing models) does not show any significant development at this time.
Even if this disturbance does not develop, it will likely bring some heavy rains to Haiti – especially on the east side of the tropical wave axis.