August Formation Points

Here we are in early August and we are currently watching Tropical Depression Four centered over the tropical Atlantic around 1300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.  The current forecast has the track gradually turning toward the northwest and the good news for folks in South Florida is that even the 5-day cone is no where near us.

August Formation Points 1851 to 2009

The historical data set from the National Hurricane Center shows that 353 tropical storms have formed in the month of August since 1851.  But before the age of routine satellite coverage that started in the mid 1960s, some tropical storms were obviously missed.  Since the satellite era began, we have averaged 3.1 tropical storms of which 1.7 were hurricanes during the month of August.  We start seeing a lot more activity originating over the deep tropical Atlantic this time of year which is were the current tropical depression formed.

We are about to enter the beginning of what is considered to be the most active part of the Atlantic hurricane season that typically extends from mid-August to the middle or end of October.

I think the current tropical cyclone is only the beginning of what is likely to be an active two or three month period for tropical storms and hurricanes.  Klotzbach/Gray and NOAA with be updating their seasonal hurricane forecasts later this week and we will see if they continue to indicate well above average activity.


One thought on “August Formation Points

  1. Dr. Mayfield:

    I heard a Meteorologist say few years ago that every tropical depression/storm/hurricane that has reached Florida
    and not the gulf or Carolina’s had turned at a certain latitude and longitude, and if it didn’t turn at that point then it wouldn’t hit Florida.

    Can you shed a little light on this theory or me. Thank you.

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