Today, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) updated its seasonal hurricane forecast. NOAA gives a 70% probability on its numbers. The NOAA numbers bracket the numbers released yesterday by Klotzbach and Gray.
NOAA has slightly lowered the upper bounds of the ranges but is still predicting a very active season. Long-term averages according to NHC are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.
Also today, NOAA announced that La Niña has officially developed. NOAA has been saying that La Niña is likely, is expected, or is developing. But today it was officially met the criteria and is forecast to strengthen. La Niña usually results in reduced wind shear over the Atlantic Basin’s Main Development Region which in turn often results in more and stronger Atlantic hurricanes.
The message from NOAA is the same as from Klotzbach/Gray and others; we may have only had two tropical storms and one hurricane to date, but we have a lot of tropical cyclone activity yet to come.