The next Atlantic tropical cyclone

We are in the beginning of what is considered the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season that typically runs from the middle of August to the middle to end of October.

August 16-31 Formation Points from 1851 to 2009

The above graphic shows the formation points of all tropical storms in the Atlantic basin during the last half of August from 1851 to 2009.  The deep tropical Atlantic is one of the most preferred regions for development.

Satellite imagery currently shows a tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic in the vicinity of the Cape Verde Islands.  Global models show this system developing into a strong tropical cyclone over the next several days. 

Global Forecast System forecast valid for 8:00 am EDT Wednesday August 25th

 

The figure above (click on image to improve resolution) shows the National Weather Service’s Global Forecast System (GFS) model forecast valid at 8:00 am on Wednesday August 25th.  The bullseye several hundred miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands shows the current GFS depiction of where the tropical cyclone (that the model develops out of the tropical wave currently near the Cape Verde Islands) is expected to be at that time.  The European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model also shows a developing tropical cyclone also centered several hundred miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands by the morning of the 25th.

The fact that we are in the peak of the hurricane season and all of the global computer models show a tropical cyclone developing out of the disturbance currently in the vicinity of the Cape Verde Islands leads one to give a high probability of this system developing.  Time will tell.

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2 thoughts on “The next Atlantic tropical cyclone

  1. My question is as follows; since the first part or months of the season were not very active and it has been so calm now, would that represent that this period will or could develop stronger cyclones?

  2. Perhaps it would be of interest to review what were the characteristics of the 2004 & 2005 hurricane seasons that allowed for so many storms to form, and contrast that with what is happening so far in 2010 that is suppressing successful formation of storms.

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