Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks

Drs. Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray updated their Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Outlook today, and are still calling for above-average activity.

2011 Atlantic Seasonal Outlooks

Klotzbach and Gray are forecasting 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes.  These numbers are consistent with their April forecast and fall within the large ranges given in the NOAA seasonal outlook from a couple of weeks ago.

It is important to note that these numbers, while interesting, don’t say anything about where or when the storms or hurricanes will be.  Last year these seasonal forecasters were calling for well-above average activity and that is exactly what we got.  They should be congratulated for those forecasts.  The 19 named storms from last year tied for the third largest number of named storms on record.  And the 12 hurricanes from last year tied for the second largest number of hurricanes on record.  But not a single hurricane made landfall in the United States.
Hopefully, we have learned that it is not all about the numbers.  1992 was a year with only six tropical storms of which four became hurricanes.  That was a below-average year number-wise.  But South Florida will always remember that year for Hurricane Andrew.  Don’t let the seasonal outlooks have any connection to your preparedness activities.  If you are lucky enough to live in South Florida, you need to be prepared no matter what numbers are in the seasonal outlooks.  It just takes that one hurricane over your community to make for a bad year.

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