Miami Record High Temperatures

Miami International Airport set a record high temperature for the date both yesterday and today.  Yesterday’s high of 97 degrees Fahrenheit beat the previous record for June 14th of 96 set in 1998.  Today’s high of 96 degrees Fahrenheit broke the old record of 94 set in 2010, 2009 and 1998 for this date.  That is interesting, but I don’t get too excited about record highs for a few days at a single location.  I am paying closer attention to the sea surface temperatures over the tropics.

One necessary (but not sufficient) condition for tropical cyclone development is water temperature of at least 79 degrees Fahrenheit (26 degrees Celsius).

Atlantic Basin Sea Surface Temperatures

The figure above shows 80+ degree water in orange and red already covering most of the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and tropical Atlantic.  At the present time, the upper-level conditions over much of the tropics are not conducive for tropical cyclone development (too much shear).  But it is just a matter of time before we start seeing some activity.

Let’s enjoy this quite spell with no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic but also take a little time to make sure that our hurricane plans are ready to go for when the tropics do get active.


2 thoughts on “Miami Record High Temperatures

  1. Max,

    We apprecaited the heads-up to be prepared! Do you have the informational graphic on this season’s ACE index that can be posted like the one you posted last season. It was very helpful and informative.

    Thank you,

    Bruce Thomas

    • Hi Bruce: You know how much I like using the ACE Index. NOAA says “We estimate a 70% chance that the 2011 seasonal ACE range will be 105%-200% of the median. According to NOAA’s hurricane season classifications, an ACE value above 111% of the 1981-2010 median reflects an above-normal season. An ACE value above 165% of the median reflects an exceptionally active (or hyperactive) season.” I’m told that giving a percent chance of an ACE range related to the median is confusing for most of my audience so I don’t show that. Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray give a simple ACE value of 160 (compared to a 50-year average of 96). That is much simpler for most folks to understand. If NOAA simplified it like Klotzbach and Gray, I would use it more. Best regards, Max

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